Saturday 28 February 2015

【Letting go is hard, but sometimes holding on is harder】

二月新年的月份,几乎都没有写过部落格,要坚持一件事情真的不是那么简单。刚好昨天雨文与两位读者会面,得到了极大的鼓励。文章常常带来预想不到的惊喜,感觉有点儿受宠若惊。正面的力量使我更加要继续写多点文章。

过年期间想买副画来布置,机缘巧合就看见了这个句子,【Letting go is hard, but sometimes holding on is harder】,刚好配合每次操作的盲点,就买了这幅画,不断地提醒自己。


二月份有把自己得投资组合,重新整顿了一番,将负数的都转去其他组合。也是不幸中的大幸,转过后有卷土重来,卖掉的还在下跌更多。

投资股票最大的敌人并非大市,常常都是因为自己,失去了纪律的操作,没有在止损的位置抽身。有些时候某种情况,被套的时候会安慰自己说,会回来的,那么如果有足够的理由继续持有是没问题,只怕基本面越变越坏,变得自己已经是【输不起】。

这次重组当中,也有一支股票亏了近30%,如果当时没有卖掉,今天应该是亏损了50%。之前犹豫了很久,主要原因是占据的数目也并不是很大,所以那个时候也没有当机立断。

再一次必须调整自己,止损点是必须存在的。尤其是基本面操作,靠得是过去的业绩,我们常常会买在公司最风光的时候,在这个盲点切入,而公司能否维持也是一个很重要的问题。

股票投资其实可以很简单,找对方法继续做就可以了。一、两年不对,调整再调整,只要不放弃,还是会找到属于自己的一条投资道路。

昨天也收到了同事一则很有意思的分享,顺道分享给大家。

Sharing from a trader in Big Teddy Trader Group. 1. Trading is not a get rich quick scheme. it is a normal investment that gets you return on capital. Did you ever hear of a trader making 100% percent return per month on a consistent manner? If you did, did you see a proof of that? Trading professionally with proper money management would likely get you a return of few percents a month, from my personal experience a 3-5% return on capital per month is a very realistic number. So if you’re that kind of person who wants to “make a killing” trading please reconsider your expectations 2. You should be well-capitalized. Small accounts will probably burn you. This point is correlated to the first one, let me illustrate by an example: Suppose that you have a 30k trading account, according to the 3-5 percent return per month rule; that would give you 1000-$1500 return per month, which is relatively a very good number. Now let’s assume that you have a 5k account, according to the 3-5 percent rule, that would return 150-$250 per month. In the 5k example, the return would likely be unsatisfying for someone looking to trade for living. Would it be for you? Wouldn't you break your money management rules and take more risk to increase that return? 3. Technical Analysis doesn't work all the time. Assumption we make will always have a percentage of failure. The main goal is to keep you risk limited, your targets bigger than your risk for consistent profit on the long run. 4. Trading is not about forecasting the market. Do not try to be smart and always forecast where markets are headed. What a trader does is, wait for the market to GIVE him certain conditions that validate a trade. (Don’t trade under the market rules, trade under your rules). Do you feel sometimes that your lost and don’t know what to do ? its probably because of this. This is very important, and helps avoid getting lost in the process.. 5. If you did use stop loss on your trades within the past year, but you didn't and took excessive risk only on one trade, this single trade might wipe out all of the profits you gained through the year. How many times did you ignore your stop loss convincing your self that you will close at better price, it may have worked sometimes, but what if the price goes against you more and more, are you mentally strong enough and able to close at a bigger loss? you probably won’t, and end up with a margin call. 6. Don’t over analyze. Over analysis and complicating your tools will lead to confusion and not necessarily efficient. 7. Ignore your bias, trades require technical evidence, 3,4 or 5 conditions that occur concurrently. 8. Always use a top to down analysis approach, from the higher time frame to the lower time frame. The higher the time frame the more strong and invulnerable the trend is, and the more strong and invulnerable the support and resistance levels are. 9. Trading setups that occur within the context of the trend usually turn more profitable than those against the trend. 10. Don’t give up when you encounter a losing streak, yeah it can go up to 10 losing trades… don’t worry it’s normal in trading.

4 comments:

  1. 请问你对mmode股了解吗?前景如何?

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. Zuiseng,

      Mmode 这只股不是很了解,只知道冷眼好像有。

      业绩中规中矩吧,除非有利好或刺激性消息。

      Delete
  2. 谢谢雨文师傅教诲,小弟获益良多

    ReplyDelete
    Replies
    1. 阿里斯师傅,

      小妹才需要和你多多学习。

      Delete