Tuesday, 14 August 2018

长青纤维板 【EVERGREEN, 5101】否极泰来



去年开始很多人讨论 Evergreen 这只股,大家都很期待他过去投入很多的资本开销,包括重启和增加刨花板生产线,应该会带来很大的催化剂,可惜的是计划永远赶不上变化,运气不好的再次碰上了原木价格涨价和供应短缺的问题。导致股价就是不停的跌,越跌越看不到路。

目前本地股市继大选后终于看到一线曙光,外资过去两个星期开始从卖家变成了买家,指数也从低点上涨了一百多点。同样的,Evergreen 的股价似乎也好像有一点起色,来到了200天均线。但是我想讨论的是,Evergreen 还有希望吗?

先聊聊公司背景


这家公司的创办人是一位84岁郭老先生(Kuo Wen Chi),是一位新加坡人。早前在1957,他在台湾一家三夹板公司打工,累积了这个行业的经验后,在1972年回到新加坡创立了 Evergreen Timber Product Co (ETP)。在1977年,来到马来西亚成立了Evergreen 集团。

目前由他的两个儿 Kuo Jen Chang 、 Kuo Jen Chiu 领导公司,第三代的孙子也加入了非执行董事。最近这位郭老爷爷也把他的股份全部转了给他的孙子- 

根据年报,80%公司的营业额是来自面板 ( Panel Board ),15% 来自组装家具 ( RTA ), 5% 来自木质产品。


探讨2017 出现的问题
在此综合一下,去年面临的挑战,导致业绩下滑的原因。

1)泰国工厂火灾,导致停工8个月
2)雨季,木材短缺问题,成本高
3)美金下滑



其实遇到成本提高,盈利萎缩也不是单单Evergreen的问题,同行的Hevea,Mieco 也在去年陷入了困境。木材短缺问题对做木板行业的是致命伤。在AGM里,也是有股东发问到,能否把这个成本转接到顾客上,管理层说不行,因为也是有竞争。能否使用入口木材,这也不可能,运输成本就很高了。能不能使用别的木?下雨天根本没有人要收割,所以管理层也唯有朝向高profit margin 的产品和减低成本。

目前整体来说,我认为最糟糕的日子已经过去了。根据上个月的季报透入,泰国的厂已经在今年三月份恢复运作。而当初延迟运作的MDF 的生产线也在今年第二季度正式开跑。最近也没什么下雨,木材价格应该属于比较稳定。

许多人会问,那么HEVEA 呢?HEVEA也是因为外汇会利好,只是HEVEA的营业额和公司的规模,怎样都比EVERGREEN小得多,但是市值来说,EVERGREEN却比HEVEA还要小。我会觉得EVERGREEN比较便宜。

最后,如果有人知道哪里可以查木材价格请留言。
你们不要相信我,请自己去研究和验证,喜欢的话欢迎拿去分享,谢谢。

64 comments:

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  3. http://www.mtib.gov.my/index.php

    查看了官方网站,可惜没有木材价格数据。

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